NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast Since the beginning of the year, the rates of the NZD/JPY continued in the frames of the rapid downtrend, however, the situation began to change and the current trend is under threat to change. On the chart has traced the new upward trend. It is too early to speak about the final change, but probability remains high. Both support line and resistance line have been removed. Though if the resistance line shifted in the downward direction, the support line has been reversed up.
So, Why the trend has begun to change its direction? In the beginning of the month, the Japanese yen came under the pressure because of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The conflict at any moment could go to the active zone and Japan could be involved in this conflict. So, the yen has lost positions against most currencies. Amid the geopolitical risks for Japan, the new Zealand dollar has been supported by positive data about retail volume which rose in the 1st quarter of 2017 in 1.5% against the forecast of 0.9%. It was the sharpest increase in retail trade since the second quarter of 2016. In addition, the number of tourists in April, continues to grow, increasing by 20% year on year. Strengthening of the NZD also contributes by the rising commodity prices, including oil.
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen managed to take the initiative again due to yesterday's data about the Japanese economy. Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 0.5%, coinciding with the forecasts of investors, and in year on year increasing was 2.2%, against forecasted 1.7%. In addition, second month in a row, orders for machinery have increased, although investors expected more than actual + 1.4% growth.
At the moment, the value of NZD consolidated in the range of 76.7 - 77.1 JPY. This levels are good entry points to the market. At the moment, the most optimal can be the deals to BUY, considering that today the market is expecting for the data about the milk price index. It will be published today and can support the NZD in the short term perspective. MACD, RSI oscillators confirm this and also signal a good moment for opening the deals to BUY. As for the medium-term trading, next week we'll get the data about the trade balance and export volumes - both from Japan and New Zealand. So, both currencies can get support and go up in price.