NAIROBI, 5 March 2010 (IRIN) - Health services in Kenya should prepare for above-average precipitation during the March-to-May rainy season, according to a government forecast.

"Water-borne diseases associated with poor sanitation as well as flooding may emerge in areas expected to receive enhanced rainfall," the director of meteorological services, Joseph Mukabana, warned in a 4 March statement.

"Health authorities are, therefore, expected to be on the lookout and equip hospitals with necessary drugs to be able to deal with such situations as they arise," he added.

Some regions within seven of the country's eight provinces are expected to "receive normal rainfall with a slight tendency towards above-normal", according to the statement, adding that rains in Coast Province may, however, tend towards "below-normal".

Several districts in northwestern Kenya experienced a prolonged cholera outbreak in 2009; the region is forecast to have above-normal rains from March to May.

Mukabana also urged local authorities to clear drainage systems to avoid flash flooding.

At present, Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) teams are responding to two days of flash flooding in some divisions in Mandera East District, in the northeast, where streams running through the town have burst their banks, the acting head of disaster preparedness, Abdishakur Othowai, told IRIN.

"Residents are not able to cross from one side of the road to the other," Othowai said.

A game reserve in the central northern region of Samburu was also flooded; staff and tourists were evacuated.

Flooding risk

According to an update by the Flood Early Warning Team of the Ministry of State for Special Programmes, a moderate risk of flooding is expected along the Nzoia River in the west, based on the meteorological department's long rains forecasts.

The Nzoia River perennially bursts its banks, displacing thousands of people in the Budalangi and Kano regions. Mudslides also occur in central, western, and parts of Rift Valley provinces, which are forecast to have increased rains.

As of 4 March, the river basin was receiving very heavy rainfall, with water levels continuously rising to warning levels, raising the risk of flooding, stated the Flood Early Warning Team bulletin.

In 2009, Kenya experienced drought conditions that left millions hungry and thousands of livestock dead, after successive failed rains.

At present, food security has improved in some regions due to enhanced October to December short rains, according to a January to June update by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net). The rains extended to February in some areas.

The availability of crop harvests and short cycle crops between April and June will sustain food security improvements, says FEWS Net, as will normal long rains.

However, it notes that prevailing high maize prices, which are 100 percent above average levels, will still affect pastoralists and urban consumers, who do not produce the staple.

KRCS is providing certified maize seeds to at least 100,000 farmers in the northwestern areas of Turkana East and South as well as West Pokot ahead of the long rains, said Othowai.

"Besides just preparing for emergencies, communities also need to be prepared to take advantage of the rains to avoid perennial dependence on food aid," said KRCS.

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