ABIDJAN, 16 November 2010 (IRIN) - Ivorians preparing for a tense presidential run-off on 28 November are hoping the fragile peace of the first round on 31 October will hold, but fear it could easily crumble as cracks begin to emerge.

Having been repeatedly postponed, the long-awaited elections have so far gone relatively smoothly. International observers have broadly praised the conduct of voters and political parties.

The last elections in October 2000 were marred by chaotic scenes of rioting as supporters of current President Laurent Gbagbo took to the streets following military leader Robert Guéi's televized announcement of his own victory. Gbagbo's subsequent decade in office has been marked by domestic conflict and the de facto partition of Côte d'Ivoire.

Patrick N'Gouan, president of the Convention de la Société Civile Ivoirienne (CSCI) civil society coalition, says the relative lack of serious problems so far with the elections should not create a false sense of security: "The first round went well because the two parties that could have created trouble made it through," N'Gouan told IRIN.

"The problem is that each party has a certain number of radicals, so the question now is: Will the radicals in the losing party be able to easily accept defeat? That's what we're all afraid of. We think the hardest is yet to come."

Gbagbo took 38 percent of the vote in the first round, with former prime minister Alassane Ouattara winning 32 percent.

Ethnic identity and allegiance dominated the campaigning of the three main candidates in the first round.

President Gbagbo, who is from the Bété ethnic group, concentrated predominantly in the southwest, has often used a hardline nationalist tone, accusing Ouattara of representing sinister "foreign" interests. This is a thinly-veiled reference to past allegations that Ouattara is really Burkinabe and not Ivorian, a charge often made more directly by Gbagbo's loyalists in the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI). Ouattara's support base, officially gathered around the Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR), is often characterized as being mainly northern and Muslim.

While the former prime minister has substantial pockets of support in Abidjan and elsewhere around the country, he polled most strongly in the north and northwest, areas taken by the rebel Forces Nouvelles (FN) when it took up arms in 2002. The FN says its insurgency was triggered by persistent policies of discrimination and marginalization pursued by southern-dominated governments. Ouattara's RDR has tapped into the same grievances.

Many supporters of third-placed candidate Bédié, representing the Parti Démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), come from the former president's own Baoulé tribe, concentrated mainly in the central and eastern regions of the country. Baoulé votes will largely decide the outcome of the second round, N'Gouan told IRIN. Having accepted his own elimination from the race, Bédié has called on the 25 percent of the electorate who voted for him to rally around Ouattara in the second round.

Within days of the results of the first round being announced, both the CSCI and sections of the Ivorian press reported on tensions between Bété and Baoulé, notably in the southwestern regions of Bas-Sassandra, Haut-Sassandra and Fromager.

"Ethnicity, religion and money weighed heavily on the choices made by the electorate. When a vote is based on those things, it means that rational arguments aren't valid. It's more or less irrational forces that shaped the vote," N'Gouan pointed out.

Machete

A villager in Zebreguhe in Fromager said the community was now calm but tense after one voter was seriously injured during an attack.

"In a small village like this, we all know who our friends are going to vote for, and members of the Béte tribe tried to prevent some Baoulé from voting," Jonas M'Bra told IRIN. M'Bra reported that one villager, known as "Konan", had tried to resist such pressure, but had been cut with a machete.

"We've accepted the apologies given but we will now take precautions in awaiting the second round," said M'Bra, adding that some Baoulé in the town would abstain from voting for fear of reprisals.

Sources from within the Baoulé community in Soubré in Bas-Sassandra reported a similar pattern of intimidation. "FPI [pro-Gbagbo] youth tried to block Baoulé from voting", a Baoulé man told IRIN. "The youths had wooden clubs and machetes. They knew we were going to vote PDCI. After the vote, the youth insulted Baoulé, saying: `if Gbagbo doesn't win, we are going to run you off your plantations'."

There have also been reports of Baoulé leaving home areas during the voting period. In the town of Issia in Haut-Sassandra, some 60 Baoulé villagers who left their homes in the days following the election, had returned, district officer Daniel N'Goli told IRIN.

The FPI director for Issia told IRIN allegations of violence by supporters of the ruling party were exaggerated.

"This is politics and the opposition is exaggerating. We wouldn't chase away people we need to win the elections," Seraphin Gahi Bahouan said.

Still hope

Civil society organizations have stressed that security must be strengthened for the second round of voting to prevent voter intimidation. Meanwhile, there is also serious concern about the timing of the announcement of results.

"The electoral commission needs to tighten up its act. If the population has to wait for longer than 24 hours to get the results, we are looking at a powder keg," a civil society representative told IRIN, speaking on condition of anonymity.

N'Gouan said there was still hope for a positive outcome: "If civil societies sensitize the population well, if the UN and other impartial forces manage to engage in the process with persuasion, it could allow things to go smoothly," he said.

With security and transparent there shouldn't be any problem.