With the presidential election just around the corner, our correspondents write that the battle, which is a straight one between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari, may spring some surprises

As Nigerians, nay the world, wait for the March 28 presidential election and the 10 competing political parties putting finishing touches to their strategies, the actual contest, political watchers have submitted, is between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the All Progressives Congress.

How would the scenario look like in the country's 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, when the battle is fought, won and lost?

Abia

President Jonathan of the PDP is expected to win the presidential poll in Abia State as his party remains the dominant one there. The PDP's strong base in the state coupled with the position of Governor Theodore Orji as the Coordinator of Jonathan's Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone has further boosted Jonathan's chances at the poll. Abia parades an army of people and accomplished Nigerians who are of the PDP family and they have been working assiduously to deliver their various localities to the President. Some of them include: Nigeria's High Commissioner to Canada, Chief Ojo Maduekwe; former PDP National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor; former Senate President Adulphus Wabara; Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Gen. Ike Nwachukwu ( retd); among a host of others.

Jonathan's marital tie with Abia State is also expected to boost his chances. The mother of the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, hailed from Abia and the state enjoys a very warm relationship with the First Family.

Abuja

Abuja, the seat of power, should ordinarily be the star on the crown of the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. However, the territory which some refer to as a city of civil servants is likely to be almost evenly split between Jonathan and Buhari.

Senator Philip Aduda (PDP) is expected to lead other public and political office holders to mobilise votes for the President because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed; would be required to go back to Bauchi where he hails from to join the governor and the party's national chairman, Adamu Mua'azu to campaign for the President. Aduda, however, has to contend with a former political opponent, Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for a Senate seat is also mobilising support for Buhari and the APC. That Abuja is where the President has lived for six years counts for a lot but the large number of northerners in the city is also a plus for Buhari. Verdict: It's too close to call.

Adamawa

It is a state of political gladiators and all of them will want to make a point. The state boasts of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the APC; Buhari's wife; former Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur; ex-EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, among others.

It would have been an easy ride for the PDP, but for the Boko Haram menace that has claimed many lives.

The opinion of political analysts in the state is that despite the successes recorded in Mubi and many other towns, many indigenes are not impressed because they believe that the President launched the late war on the insurgents to score a political point.

Hence, it looks like a tight race between Buhari and Jonathan despite the fact that PDP won the state in 2011.

Akwa Ibom

Both the PDP and the APC are popular in Akwa Ibom State. Each of these two political parties exercises dominance in some sections of the state.

The people of Oro ethnic nationality (the largest ethnic group in Akwa Ibom South Senatorial District with five local government areas) are mainly against the PDP.

The people, who embrace APC hold that if Oro continues to remain in the PDP, the probability for them to produce a governor in the next 40 years will be slim.

Other areas with strong support APC base are Uruan; Ibeno; Ikot Abasi; Esit Eket; Abak Federal Constituency otherwise known as Abak Five; Itu; Ini; Ikono. The party has also encroached into areas like Ikot Ekpene; Essien Udim, where the PDP has strongholds.

However, Governor Godswill Akpabio who is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to PDP coupled with the South-East support for Jonathan.

Anambra

In 2011, President Jonathan of the PDP polled 1,145,169 million votes or 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast in Anambra State.

From the statistics, Anambra gave Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in the country. His closest rival was the Congress Progressives Congress candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who polled 4,223 votes.

The situation on the ground shows that Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the presidential election in the state.

The sentiments that worked well for Jonathan in 2011 are still very much around. But the party has lost a lot of followers, who though may not move over to vote Buhari, may remain indifferent.

The factors playing in favour of Jonathan include the incumbency factor. The party in power in the state, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.

This adds to the advantage of Jonathan being the official candidate of the biggest opposition party in the state.

Jonathan is likely to win but with a diminished margin as against the result in 2011 when he scored 98 per cent of the votes.

Bauchi

With the National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu'azu, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed and Governor Isa Yuguda, President Jonathan should expect to garner a substantial number of votes or at least 25 per cent of the votes. However, this can only happen if the three resolve their differences and decide to work together. Buhari's popularity among the ordinary folk in the state is unlikely to wane before the March 28 election. Buhari is most likely to carry the day.

Bayelsa

In Bayelsa, the home state of President Jonathan, it is almost a taboo to mention any other political party except the PDP.

The emergence of the rival opposition political party, the APC, has yet to change the people's perception about the PDP. Also, the APC has yet to entrench itself as a formidable party in the state. Observers believe that in Bayelsa, the general election is fait accompli for the PDP as the party has formidable structures in the state compared to the APC and other political parties.

Benue

Here the two candidates' chances stand at 55 per cent for Jonathan and 45 for Buhari. Though a PDP controlled state, the people of the state complain endlessly of non-payment of salaries which they say has been the bane of the government. The state is agrarian with a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class.

Having the civil servants objecting to any government spells near defeat for such administration. This is what has put the PDP on the path of declined popularity. However, Jonathan still stands slightly higher than Buhari in the reckoning of the people. Also, Senate President David Mark will want to make a good showing in his state.

Borno

In Borno, Buhari has been a political factor since the first day he declared his ambition to contest the presidency of Nigeria in 2007. He has always come first while his opponents, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar'Adua and the current one, Jonathan, came a far second. He is idolised by the people of the state, it can even been said that he is more loved in the state than in his home state of Katsina because he lost there to Umaru Yar'Adua in 2007. He has never lost any election in Borno where he is seen as a role model and anyone that seeks political office has to come via him.

The love for Buhari was said to have started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the then capital of the North-East state and till date, he is still loved as if those days were moments away.

As it stands today, Buhari will get a landslide victory over Jonathan in Borno.
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