Iwuchukwu Chukwudi wrote:


PDP Delegates And How They Are Likely To Vote On Saturday, State by States


The die has been rolled. Nigerians who are tired of APC misrule and 8 years of Locust are waiting patiently for Saturday to see who becomes the opposition party presidential candidate , the PDP candidate as chosen by the delegates.


As someone who started studying politics far back in 1999 when I was in JSS 2, I present to you the likely voting pattern of the delegates, state by state.


Note that this is my personal observation based on my understanding of PDP politics, but nothing is cast in stone. Decisions and realignments can be made over night, as 24 hours, they say, is a long time in politics.


Join me on the journey as I start from


1) Abia state


In the 2018 PDP presendential primaries, Abia state delegates, led by the governor, Okezie, voted for the old fox Atiku Abubakar, but over the years, realignment and new friendship have been forged, and the man I hate so much, Nyesome Wike, has found a way to cultivate the friendship of the state with Okezie Ikepaze and the leader of PDP in the state and former governor of the state, Theordore Orji.


It was not a coincidence that the Abia state governor followed Wike to submit his presendential form at the PDP headquarters in Abuja, so the state delegates will likely vote for Rivers state governor, Wike, and sadly so.


2) Adamawa


This is the home state of the Waziri of Africa, the man I love so much and the one I'm personally rooting for, Atiku Abubakar.


His home state governor, Fintri, is in his good books and will deliver the state's delegates to his boss and mentor, 100 percent, no argument.

3) The state of Akwa Ibom


The state governor, Udom Emmanuel, is in the race to occupy the number one persidential seat, so all the state delegates are expected to rally behind their governor, unless the governor steps down before Saturday and then endorses another candidate.


We watch!


4) Anambra


Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra state and another man I love so much, has changed the dynamics and is undoubtly the person that the majority of Nigerians want to succeed Buhari.


As a result, he is expected to win 100% of the Anambra delegates, but the truth is that the terrible and incompetent Wike is working hard to take food from the mouth of the beloved Peter Obi.

At the moment, Peter Obi's camp is not in control of Anambra PDP delegates.


They are being controlled by Sentaor Stella Oduah, who decamped back from APC to PDP after the state gubernatorial election that her candidate lost, the notorious Chris Uba and Linus Ukachukwu, who are likely to deliver the delegates to Wike with the way things are standing.


Unless a miracle happens before Saturday, Anambra delegates will vote for Wike and not the people's choice, Peter Obi.


5) Bauchi



My good man Bala Mohammed, the governor of the state, is running in the race. As expected, his state delegates will come up behind him, unless the governor decides to step down and endorse another candidate. Without this happening, the delegates' votes are 100 percent for their boss.



6) Bayelsa



Atiku Abubakar won this state in the 2018 PDP presidential primaries, but a lot has changed in the past 4 years.


The governor of the state, as I was told, has personal affection for the man I hate so much, Nyesome Wike. But another factor that might prevent Govenro Douye from giving the state delegates to his friend Wike is the fact that his benafactor, boss and the former governor of the state, Senator Dickson, is not on good terms with Wike as they are sworn enemies.

The state delagates will likely deliver for Atiku Abubakr again since it is the same structure that delivered for Atiku in 2018 and is still in charge with some spoil votes going to Wike because of his friendship with the state govenor.


7) Benue.

In 2018, Rivers state's governor insulted the state's governor, Ortom, by claiming that while his colleagues were completing projects, he was busy sharing wheelbarrows.



This cutting comment by Wike caused a fight between the governor and Wike. Because of this fight, Ortom and his delegates voted for Atiku Abubakar, but the two governors have made up over the years and are now the best of friends.


The Benue delegates will be split between Wike and Udom Emmanuel, as Senator Suswam, the former governor of the state, is the campaign director for Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom presidency project.

8)Borno


Borno state backed Tambuwal in the 2018 presidential primaries, but one of their own  and Nigeria's most respected financial technocrat  and former investment banker, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, is in the race.


The delegates' votes will likely be shared by the turn-around expert from Borno and the Sokoto Governor, Aminu Tambuwal.


9) Cross River:

Cross River delegates voted for Atiku Abubakr in the 2018 PDP primaries, and this action infuriated the dictator of Rivers state and the emperor, Wike, who used the vast Rivers state oil money to buy the PDP Cross River structure in 2019 after the election.

One of the reasons Governor Ayade and Wike's archenemy defected to the APC was this.

Ayade could not stomach the reality that his enemy was in charge of PDP structures in his state, so he decamped.

Cross River delegates will currently deliver their votes  to their financier and benfactor, Emepror Wike.

10) Delta

This state voted for Atiku in the 2018 PDP primaries and will likely do so again because of the friendship between the leader of the PDP in Delta State, James Ibori, and Atiku.

Atiku is also a friend to the governor of the state who worked for him in 2018, so I expect the same scenario to repeat itself again on Saturday.

11) Ebonyi


Ebonyi delegates will vote for Anyim Pius Anyim, their son, former Senate President and former Secretary to the Governor of the Federation.


12)  Edo state


Edo state is too close to call.

The Edo state governor is working for Atiku Abubakar, while the PDP vice chairman for South South, Dan Orbih, is working for Wike.

The two warring factions had separate primaries to elect their delegates.

I was told that INEC monitored the parallel pamaries of Obaseki as PDP electoral committee members were in Obaseki's election and not Dan Obih's.

If this is the true position, it means that Edo delegates will deliver 100 percent for Atiku Abubakar.


13) Ekiti


Ayo Fayose is a personal friend of Emperor Wike who has been funding the Ekiti PDP, his delegate will vote entirely in favor of Emperor Wike.


14) Enugu:

Enugu state delegates voted for Atiku in the 2018 PDP primaries, but the friendship went sour when Atiku picked Peter Obi as his running mate without the consent and knowledge of Ugwunayi, who delivered his state to Atiku.


Because a lot of water has passed through the bridge in the past 4 years, the outgoing Governor of the state, Ugwuanyi, is in the good books of Wike, so his state delegates will vote for him on Saturday.


15) Gombe

Emperor Wike has made inroads in Gombe through the former governor of the state, Danwanbo, but Atiku's influence is still high in the state, so Atiku and Wike will share the delegates.


16) Imo


Governor Tambuwal of Sokoto won this state in the 2018 PDP presidential primaries due to his long-standing friendship with my good man and former governor, Emeka Ihedioha, but Wike is fighting tooth and nail for the soul of the Imo state PDP using his boy and PDP national secretary, known as Sam Daddy.


At the moment, the Imo state PDP is in turmoil as the two factions, Emeka Ihedioha's faction and Sam Daddy's faction, are at each other's throats, so this again is too close to call, but if Emeka Ihedioha's faction wins the battle, Tambuwal will clear the state delegates.


17) Jigawa



Atiku Abubakar's mother is from this state, and he holds a personal relationship with the leader of the PDP in that state, Turaki.


Just as the delegates from Jigawa did in 2018, they are warming up to deliver the state to Atiku on Saturday.


18) Kaduna


Atiku won this state in the 2018 PDP primaries, but Saraki and Emperor Wike have made inroads into Kadunna, so I expect the 3 of them to share the spolis of delegates from the state.



19) Kano


Shehu Sagagi, the PDP chairman of Kano, is loyal to a former governor of Kano State and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso.


There is this rumour out there that Wike is the bank bankrolling Kwankwanso's presidential bid in return for his delegates voting for him.


So if this rumour is true, I expect Wike to win the state.


20) Kastina:


Kastina's former governor, Shema, is a personal friend and political ally of Atiku Abubakr. He is also the PDP leader in Katisina.


His state delegatets voted for Atiku in the 2018 PDP primaries, and since the structures are still the
same, his delegates will vote for Atiku Abubabakar.


21) Kebbi
Because of their influence in the state, Kebbi, the Governor of Sokoto, Tambuwal, and Atiku Abubakar are likely to share the dealgates from this state.


22) Kogi Atiku won this state in the 2018 PDP primaries, but the status quo is no longer the same.

Emperor Wike has made inroads into the state. That is why his candidate defeated Dino Melaye, backed by Atiku Abubakar.


It will be a three-dog race between Wike, Sariki, and Atiku Abubakar.


23) Kwara
Kwara is the home state of Bukola Saraki and he is the PDP leader in that state. As expected, his delegates will vote for him.


24) Lagos
Lagos state is too close to call and in a state of flux, but it is expected that either one of Wike, Atiku, or Saraki will win the state.


25) Nasarawa


Another Atiku stronghold, but Emperor Wike has made inroads into the state. The state chairman of the PDP is Atiku. While the frontline governorship candidate of the party is rooting for Emperor Wike, it is expected that Atiku will carry the day.


(26) The state of Niger


Niger state is in the bag for Atiku as the former governor and the leader of PDP in the state, Babaginda Aliyu, is in Atiku's camp and so, he is expected to deliver the state to his friend, just like he did in 2018.


27) Ogun State


The first son of Baba Ijebu Lotttery, who is also the governorship candidate of Ogun PDP and the leader of Ogun PDP, Ladi Adeputu, is a personal political ally of Atiku Abubakar.


A few months ago, he marked his 60th birthday at Abokuta, and Atiku was the only notable VIP that went to the birthday event.


Just like he did in 2018, Adebutu is expected to deliver his state deleagtes to his ally and assoicate, Atiku Abubakar.


28) Ondo


Long before now, Eyitayo Jegede (SAN) and the leader of Ondo PDP has always been known as Atiku's boy among the political elites.


He delivered Ondo state delegates to his boss in the 2018 PDP primaries, but a lot has changed since that time.


The former governor of the state, Mimiko, has returned to Ondo and appears to be bankrolled  by Wike.


Atiku will still carry the state, but Wike will get something out of Ondo because of Mimiko's factor.


29) Osun state


Osun delegates was delivered to Saraki in 2018 due to the relationship between the leader of the Osun PDP and Davido's uncle, Senator Adeleke, and former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki.
So up till now, they are still friends and allies, so I expect Osun state delegates to vote for Saraki.


30) Oyo


Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state is Wike's friend. He has personally endorsed Wike as he has not concealed his bias for him. Because of his influence, I expect Oyo delegates to vote for their governor's friend.


31) State of Plataue
Plataue State is another one of Atiku's strongholds. Emperor Wike has made inroads into Plataue State, but I expect Atiku to still win a majority of the delegates.


32) River state


Rivers is Emperor Wike's home state. His delegates will vote for him 100 percent.


33) Taraba


Another Atiku stronghold, but a lot has changed in the past 4 years. I expect Atiku to win it as he did in 2018, but other asiprants will share the spoils of the delegates.


34) Sokoto
This is Governor Tambuwal's home state; his delegates will vote for him.


35) Yobe
Tambuwal has a lot of influence here, so he will carry the delegates' votes.


36) Zamfara

Another of Tambuwal's strongholds, so I expect him and Atiku to do very well here.


37) FCT


Abuja delegates under the leadership of Senator Adudua voted for Atiku in 2018, but Adudua has switched camps as he is currently in the camp of Governor Wike. I was told it was Wike who sponsored the last FCT local government election, which made PDP win 3 seats out of 6, so Senator Adudua's loyalty is to Wike and not his former benefactor, Atiku.


In conclusion, the race is between Atiku, Wike, Tambuwal, and Saraki, and it is too close to call.
A lot can change from now till Saturday evening.

From now till Saturday, I expect new alliances, re-alignment, wheel dealing , and horse trading to happen between the aspirants and the leaders of the delegates, so nothing is cast in stone
.
As always, I wish the PDP deleagates all the best as they vote and may the best man win.


This piece was written by Barrister Chukwudi Iwuchukwu, an aspiring billionaire and political pundit.