Iwuchukwu Chukwudi wrote:


PDP Presidential Primaries: Pretenders v Contenders by Obi Trice Emeka


With the new electoral act mandating that political parties carry out their primaries at quickly as possible so that candidates will have up to 6 months to campaign, the Nigerian political space is getting busy. INEC has declared June 4th 2022 as the deadline for the conduct of primaries, to this effect, the PDP has fixed May 30th for the conduct of the party's primary.


The PDP is expected to reclaim power from the APC, the ruling party due to what many observers say are the unfulfilled promises of the party in 2015 and the tragic collapse of security and the economy. Whether the PDP can win the 2023 election is largely dependent on who the candidate is.


So far, 17 persons have bought the PDP presidential expression of interest form for N40m, however of the 17 aspirants, only very few are serious contenders while the majority are pretenders.


Pretenders


There are various reasons why politicians purchase formS and vie for a political position even when the chances of winning are closer to zilch. For one, many would want that title, " former presidential aspirant" others, it is to be at the negotiation table and for some others, it is to remain relevant in the party and have the leverage to drag party structure in their state.


Pius Anyim: He was the first SE candidate to declare interest in the race and began a nationwide tour in support of his aspirations. It appears Sen. Anyim came into the race to be the John the Baptist of the Igbo presidency- keeping the discussion of the Igbo presidency active within the party. At the moment his campaign has fizzled out as he has achieved what he sent out to do.


Senator Bukola Saraki: The former Senate President and two-terms Governor of Kwara state declared his interest to run earlier in March. Apart from crisscrossing the country with Bala Muhammad and others in search of an elusive consensus candidate which many saw as comedic his campaign has failed to gather traction. It appears that his only interest is to use the presidential aspirant tag to be relevant and galvanise his political base in Kwara as they prepare to launch a massive attack on the seat of power in Kwara state.


Bala Muhammad: I hear the Governor has purchased his governorship form also. His entrance into the race perhaps is for comic relief


Udom Emmanuel, Ayo Fayose, and Dele Momodu are in the race to end their political participation with a climax as a " former political aspirants"


Contenders


Alhaji Atiku appears to be the favourite to clinch the PDP ticket. The old fox political network is still alive and kicking. Atiku is no stranger to party politics and delegate elections, hence having enough experience to back on to win. This experience and wide network will once more come in his favour on May 30th. However, Atiku faces the moral question of zoning; why should the North retain power after 8 years in a multicultural society like Nigeria? Atiku believes that the most important thing is for the PDP to win and with 11 million amassed in 2019, he is the PDP's most practical bet at winning


Tambuwal: The Governor of Sokoto State heavily backed by Nyesome Wike tried his luck in 2019 and lost out to Atiku Abubakar. In 2023 he is going it alone without the support of the influential Nyesome Wike. Though supported by some influential members of the party, he is yet to gain the support of the PDP Governors. Like in 2019, he will lose out.


Nyesome Wike: His entrance into the race had initially appeared as a satirical relief to observers but Wike has solidified his position as a contender by digging in for the control of delegates in many states. He understands the business of primaries and how to use one's influence within the party deviously. He will likely not win but will have a strong showing.Wike's biggest problem is that he doesn't cut the figure of a president Nigeria wants. No thanks to his utterances


Wildcard


Peter Obi appears to have become the crowd's favourite having used the media excellently to his advantage. He is likely to do well in the general election, however, one has to win the delegate election before one can have a go at the primaries. The primary will be his Achilles heel. The only way for Peter to win the delegate election is that the position is micro zoned to the South East. To Peter's credit he has run a good campaign focusing on his strongest selling point; being frugal and using the media strategically to get his bull's eye critical points to the public. If he gets the ticket, he will likely win the Southern votes.


Ps: we will take on the APC next